Apple announced this morning that it will in fact have a "one-day shopping event" on Black Friday, at all Apple retail stores and online after midnight PST. But don't expect any "door busting" discounts from Apple. Historically, Apple's Black Friday deals have been modest. This year, Gotta Be Mobile predicts Apple will offer $41 off for the iPad Air and iPad 2, $21 off for the iPod touch, $101 off for the MacBook Air, $101 off for the MacBook Pro with Retina display and $101 off for the iMac. Apple has never offered discounts on iPhones for Black Friday, though it could surprise us with a deal on the 5c to move some inventory. There is no indication (or strong business reason) for Apple to discount the coveted iPad Mini 2 or iPad Mini.
The reason why such a non-competitive sale is still a big deal is that Apple otherwise never discounts its products unless they are refurbished, and even then not outrageously. As I mentioned in this weekend's story How Design And User Experience Translates To The Bottom Line, UX consultant Jared Spool of User Interface Engineering points to the Apple Store's business model as being as beautiful a piece of design as anything ever turned out by Jony Ive.
As Spool explains it, in contrast to a retailer like Best Buy which has to split its revenues with the manufacturer and distributor of a product which it routinely sells at a discount, Apple keeps 100% of the non-discounted take. If you index the prices to what Best Buy actually sells things for (the "street price") Apple actually makes more than 100% on Apple Store purchases (see chart below.)
So this Friday is the only day of the year that Apple actually gets (a little) down and dirty and behaves like an actual retailer. Beyond the thrill of getting a deal (however modest) at an Apple store, there is another dynamic at play. Apple actually shut down a website called Apple Tracker that had been providing inventory information about Apple products. Most companies would be happy to have a fan posting product information for other fans, but for Apple the uncertainty about supply is an incentive for consumers to buy directly from Apple (which is obviously most lucrative for it.)
If supplies of the product you want are tight, consumers rightly figure that Apple will keep the most inventory for itself and in many cases will prioritize availability over price. But because Apple keeps tight control on inventory information, consumers are really reacting to perceived availability not actual availability. If you are looking to save money on a new iPhone or iPad Mini, the best deals seem to be at Wal-Mart: $189 for the iPhone 5s and $45 for the iPhone 5c, which includes a $75 Wal-Mart gift card (requires a two-year contract); and $299 for the iPad mini, which includes a $100 Wal-Mart gift card (this deal is apparently only available for one hour on Thanksgiving, in-store only, limit of one per customer.)
Apple's modest deals should be balanced by more inventory. It seems likely that some of the bigger deals from other vendors, like Wal-Mart, are designed to get you in the door and buy all sorts of other stuff when the Apple product you want has sold out. At least at the Apple store the only other things to buy are similar to what you came for.
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