Any OS Trying to Beat Android Has Long Road Ahead

Though still on the rise, smartphone growth is set to slow in the coming years, according to the latest data from IDC.

Global shipments will reach an estimated 1.3 billion units this year—an increase of more than 26 percent over 2013. But the future doesn't look quite as bright.

IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker report suggested that 1.4 billion smartphones will be shipped in 2015—a 12 percent year-over-year growth rate. What's more, the annual gaps will continue to close, reaching 1.9 billion units in 2019—only a 9.8 percent growth rate between 2014 and 2018.

It's Google's Android operating system that will be leading the pack. According to IDC, by 2018, Android will control 80 percent of global smartphones shipped and 61 percent of revenues. That's lower than the 84 percent of phones that ran Android in the third quarter of this year, but still far ahead of No. 2 iOS, which is predicted to carry only 13 percent of volumes and 34 percent of revenues by 2018, IDC said.

Leading by such a large margin, Android basically ensures that new OSes like Firefox and Tizen will have to pull out all the stops to compete; low prices will no longer be enough of a selling point for consumers.

"As shipment volume slows, we expect greater attention to shift toward value trends," Ramon Llamas, research manager with IDC's mobile phones team, said in a statement.

Smartphone revenues, meanwhile, show a much more troubling trend, as manufacturers continue to cut prices in hopes of gaining customers.

"The impact of upstart Chinese players in the global market will be reflected in a race to the bottom when it comes to price," senior IDC research manager Melissa Chau said. "While premium phones aren't going anywhere, we are seeing increasingly better specs in more affordable smartphones. Consumers no longer have to go with a top-of-the-line handset to guarantee decent hardware quality or experience. The question now is how much lower can prices go?"

Considering everything from Apple and Samsung to Xiaomi and Huawei, IDC reported that this year's average handset selling price comes in at $297. In four years, that number will likely drop to $241.

Emerging markets, like India, are already weighing in far below, as average costs reached about $135 in 2014, and are expected to slip to $108 by 2018.