Can Any Mobile OS Beat Android?

Any mobile operating system hoping to unseat Android and iOS has a tough road ahead: new data from IDC shows that the two platforms were running on 96.3 percent of all smartphones in 2014.

Android, however, is still well ahead, ending the year with 81.5 percent of the global smartphone market. But iOS had a healthy fourth quarter thanks to sales of the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus.

IDC Research manager Ramon Llamas chalked the success up to drivers like strong end-user demand, refreshed product portfolios, and the availability of low-cost devices (particularly from Android).

"What will bear close observation is how the two operating systems fare in 2015 and beyond," Llamas said in a statement.

Despite record-high volumes last year, iOS saw its share decline slightly year over year (15.1 percent in 2013 vs. 14.8 percent in 2014).

"Much of this was due to the strong demand for Apple's new and larger iPhones and the reception they had within key markets," Llamas said. "What remains to be seen is how Apple will sustain demand going forward, as larger screens were among the last gaps in its product portfolio."

Android, meanwhile, pushed past the one billion unit mark in 2014—a significant milestone in part because total Android volumes last year beat those in 2013, according to IDC.

As the platform's major manufacturer, Samsung retained its leadership position by a wide margin, shipping more than the next five vendors combined. Still, the South Korean company experienced flat growth all year, leaving Android to rely more heavily on Huawei, Lenovo, LG, Xiaomi, and ZTE.

While the top two operating systems sit pretty, platforms like Windows Phone and BlackBerry continue to duke it out over third place.

Microsoft nabbed 2.7 percent of the market in 2014, growth of 4.2 percent year over year. After finalizing its acquisition of Nokia in the spring, Redmond mostly relied on entry-level Lumia devices to maintain its position, counting on partners HTC and Samsung to cover the high end of the market.

This year's Windows 10 launch, however, could give Microsoft the boost it needs to join its competitors.

"Instead of a battle for the third ecosystem after Android and iOS, 2014 yielded skirmishes," senior IDC research manager Melissa Chau said.

Windows Phone edged out BlackBerry, Firefox, Sailfish, and the rest, "but without any of these platforms making the kind of gains needed to challenge the top two," Chau added.

BlackBerry took a hit last year, dipping from 1.9 percent of the market in 2013 to 0.4 percent last year. But the recent introduction of platform enhancements and new devices (the BlackBerry Passport and BlackBerry Classic), 2015 could be the Canadian phone maker's year.

According to IDC, BlackBerry CEO John Chen anticipates 10 million units will be shipped before the end of the year, returning the company to profitability and marking a 72 percent increase over the 5.8 million shipped in 2014.

"With Microsoft bringing ever-cheaper Lumias into play and Tizen finally getting launched to India early this year, there is still a hunger to chip away at Android's dominance," Chau said.