In order to enter the commercial mainstream the Apple Watch will have to win over more than just the company’s (admittedly huge) fan base.
Apple’s gargantuan sales means that even if it shifts millions of units, the watch could still be seen as a failure.
Nearly 75 million iPhones sold in Apple’s last reporting quarter, pushed up by the unfeasibly popular iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus.
iPad sales are being described as “in the doldrums” yet analysts still expect people to snap up around 65 million units in 2015.
Meanwhile experts are waxing about the “death” of the iPod, which is largely cannibalised by other Apple products, yet it still sold 6 million of them in the final quarter of 2014.
At these volumes the iPod contributes only 2% of Apple’s total income.
So how many units must the Apple Watch sell to be considered a success? Anything less than 10 million will look like a rounding error in its accounts, yet even 50 million in sales will be considerably less than the “flagging” iPad.
For analysts to get really excited surely it needs to sell big in its first 12 months. But they are split on whether this is achievable. In July, Morgan Stanley went on record saying up to 60 million will fly of the shelves in its first year.
Newer predictions are more conservative, ranging from a teeny 10 million to a respectable 45 million. But the wide range of guesses reflects the fact that no one really knows.
The large profit margin on the watches means that even small sales will make a return for Apple, but the damage to its reputation – a company that thrives on incredible PR – would be hard to get over.
A study of Twitter buzz by the PR group Hotwire over a 24 hour period around the Apple Watch announcement in early March found nearly a million tweets relating to the watch. Sentiment was 58% positive and 42% negative.
Positive vibes were aimed at the apps (health, Instagram, Uber, Shazam); negative ones focused on the price and short battery life.
The watch needs to convert these fence-sitters: people who are not Apple evangelists, but enjoy good technology that works well and provides an obvious USP.
Entrepreneurs, particularly those in the branding and technology sectors, fit snugly into this group – they contributed to the early success of the iPad and the continued success of the iPhone.
But what do they think of the watch?
I asked a handful of dynamic business owners and executives if they would buy one. Of the 34 who answered, 16 said they would buy a watch, five said they would wait and see, and 13 said they weren’t interested.
Of the 16 who would buy a watch, seven said they will be making the purchase because it is their business to know how the watch works (they are in apps, digital marketing and so on), while many of the ‘wait and see’ category said they would probably buy a second generation Apple Watch if the first took off.
I also asked for views on why entrepreneurs would or would not be making the purchase. Their responses are below, along with views from industry observers who would not commit either way.
-Scott Byrne-Fraser, formerly Amazon’s manager of UX design and BBC creative director before joining ‘digital innovation company’ Adaptive Lab:
Yes: “The main draws for the Apple watch are its compatibility with the ecosystem of devices I already own and its sensors to collect data about my day to day activity. I use sports tracker apps and a FitBit, this builds on that.”
-Rafe Blandford, mobile strategist at global marketing and technology agency DigitasLBi:
Yes: “More than any other Apple product Apple Watch will be sold on the pleasure of owning it and looking at it. This sense of delight and experience is something that very much plays to Apple strengths.”
-Nigel Beighton, VP technology at Rackspace International
Yes: “I would definitely buy an Apple Watch as a form of experiment to see how a secondary wearable screen works and more importantly, how it will evolve as part of the overall wearable ecosystem.”
-Ian Tomlinson, CEO of Cybertill, providers of multi-channel retail solutions
No: “Apple has enough disciples to buy and become the market leader in the field, but there is no killer app for the watch. What can the watch do that the phone can’t? Nothing. What can the phone do that the watch can’t? Many, many things.”
-Hugh Robertson, CEO at experiential marketing business RPM
Wait and see: “Whilst there are elements of convenience, the Apple Watch as it stands doesn’t deliver anything I can’t do on my iPhone. Its distinct lack of killer features and one day battery life, considering its relatively high price point leave me clutching onto my iPhone for now.”
-Paul Houghton, director of Wizardry and development at software developer Futurice
N/A: “The media buzz has been immense and Apple is positioning it as a lifestyle product, not something you buy based on tech specifications. That's a huge untapped market with a lot of potential.”
-Rachel Arthur, senior editor for media and marketing at trend forecaster WGSN
No: “I would rather wait for the cost to come down, the technology to improve and the bugs to be ironed out. I was an early adopter of mp3 players - picking up a sleek Sony one from Japan for nearly £300 that was the size of a cigarette lighter but held only 10 songs. I learnt my lesson.”
-Emma Crowe, chief of client strategy at mobile marketing business Somo
Yes: “It’s the value-adding activities that I find compelling. Automatic check-in and door unlock at a hotel is interesting. Or when I am out and about shopping, the ability to process payments right from my wrist when my hands may be full of shopping bags would be quite useful.”
-Ioiana Luncheon, account executive at PR firm Finn Partners
No: “It is not impossible that Apple open up the watch to connect to non-iphone devices but it seems unlikely. Perhaps poor sales could encourage such a move but it would mean Apple leaving the comfort zone of a well-tested iOS enclave.”
-Dr Kevin Curran, senior member of the Institute for Electrical and Electronics Engineers
N/A: “It will not rival the iPad or iPhone. Each had clear business use cases. It will rival the ipod however. Once battery life improves, and users become familiar with a number of core apps and interaction methods, the smartwatch will become quite ubiquitous.”
-Charlotte Golunski, co-founder of Sense
Yes: “I think the launch of the Apple Watch will drive forward sales and the development of smart watches from other manufacturers, in much the same way that the iPod helped to accelerate sales of MP3 players and iPhones catalysed the smartphone market.”
-Nick Swan, founder of Voucher Codes Pro
No: “I love Apple, don’t get me wrong, but I just really don’t think that the Apple Watch will add anything to my life, from a personal or business point of view. My iPhone and Mac already allow me to do everything I need to do.”
-Adam Croxen, managing director of digital solutions business Future Platforms
Yes: “I’ll be buying an Apple Watch, primarily because it’s part of my job to understand all new devices and platforms, but also because I already own a Pebble. I think Apple Watch will do a vastly better job.”
-James Hilton, CEO of M&C Saatchi Mobile
Yes: “It sets out to help users navigate around challenges that tend to arise within the busy modern workday life.
“I’ll be able to carry my boarding pass on my wrist, pay for lunch with a client and surreptitiously view message updates without having to distractedly retrieve a phone from a jacket pocket.”
-Steve Parker, strategy partner M&C Saatchi
No: “I’d rather not have a screen attached to my body. It’s less of a watch, and more a control for every other device. This is a need that exists only for a few.”
-John Newbold, creative director at 383
Wait and see: “Compared to other players on the market, the current Apple Watch undoubtedly looks to be one of the most capable devices, but it will not be a useful device without great apps that complement the work that Apple has begun.”
-Andreas Pouros, COO of digital marketing agency Greenlight
No: “Tim Cook hailed the Apple Watch as revolutionary, but it’s clear to anyone that it’s not. It’s overpriced and doesn’t offer any significant benefits over a smartphone or tablet.
“Sure, some businesses will throw money at building apps for it and some may even be successful, but I wouldn’t spend a penny on it yet.”
-Jeshua Maxey at digital agency Head London
No: I already use a Moto360, an Android Wear watch. I am therefore already part of the Android ‘eco-system’ of devices – mobile phone and smart watch, so I’d have no immediate plans to switch mobile platform.
-Peter Gough, creative partner at ORM
Yes: “A lot of the interactions you receive on the smartphone are just glance-able notifications that don't need immediate action – the smartwatch is ideal for those subtle glances at information.”
-Ray McGroarty, global director at Polycom
Yes: “In a business world that is embracing BYOD the Apple Watch will simply be another endpoint which the major tech vendors have to incorporate into their application offering.”
-Peter Miller, creative director, Tangent Snowball
Wait and see: “Most mainstream iPhone owners (like me!) will struggle to rationalise the cost when they already have access to most features by pulling their iPhone out of their pocket.”
-Nick Braund, head of technology at PHA Media
No: “I own a Macbook, iPhone, iPad and Shuffle but I personally don’t see the need for the Watch. I am quite happy with my Apple collection so far.”
-Dan West, senior digital strategist at FCB Inferno
No: “Despite enjoying the bleeding edge of technology I have other things I want to spend the money on first. The Apple Watch is missing a few pieces of tech its competitors include as standard, such as GPS. I would therefore wait for version 2 or to see how other people fair with it.”
-Matthew Bennett, chief creative officer of Wolfpack
No: “I prefer wearing a real watch. I think in terms of 'personal branding' a proper watch says the right thing whereas an Apple Watch says something else entirely.”
-Ross Mason, VP of product strategy at MuleSoft
N/A: “The Apple Watch presents an opportunity for smarter notifications, where responses are quick for tasks such as approval requests and management sign-offs.
“Having the ability to make a decision quickly on smartwatch interfaces versus reading emails can have powerful impacts on business efficiency.”
-Ian Bloom, CEO of app builder Fliplet
No: “The business solutions that have been proposed are primarily based around notification and our employees are already getting relevant notifications on phones – where they can also action the task.”
-Mark Holden, head of futures at Arena Media
No: “Until smart watches are untethered from phones there isn't a compelling enough reason to spend the money on a device that really replicates some of the basic functions of a phone. Single-purpose wearables like fitness bands are more useful right now.”
-Professor Philip Breedon, professor of smart technologies at Nottingham Trent University
Yes: “My head says wait until the technology has developed further, but my heart says yes, as I’m a loyal Apple customer and very interested in smart and wearable technologies.”
-Andrew Hull, Strategy Director at Pocket App
Yes: “Wearable sales are growing every year but so far are not meeting expectations or predictions. But the Apple Watch has the potential to turn the market around, just as Apple did for smartphones and tablets.”
-Mark Mason, chairman of Mubaloo Group
Yes: “As a mobile consultancy and enterprise app developer, we see many possibilities and opportunities for how Apple Watch can deliver value to users.
“I’m personally planning on buying the 38mm Apple Watch with stainless steel strap. It looks fantastic.”
-Chris Averill, CEO of we are experience
Yes: “I guarantee the Apple Watch will shake up the wearable market and as with many of their other launches cause a change in customer behaviour because, the product experience, the interface and the build quality will be beautiful.”
-Anant, Sharma, CEO of brand interactions agency Matter of Form
Yes: “Apple have a distinct ability to create products that fit seamlessly into everyday life. An inevitably rapid adoption in Apple Pay – initially through NFC enabled iPhones – will become a natural method of transaction.
“This will serve as a gate into the watch, with health monitoring serving as a secondary benefit- despite a heavy focus on this aspect.”
-Gina Hutchings, marketing consultant at Receptional
No: “You can send notifications, see emails and even send your heartbeat to a loved one. I couldn’t think of anything worse. I’m in a big meeting and I get a heartbeat notification from my boyfriend.”
-Jim Prior, CEO at design agency The Partners
Wait and see: “Right now, I’m saying no. In 6-to-12 months’ time I’ll be saying maybe. By the time the 2.0 version launches it will probably be a full-on yes. At the moment, It’s ugly. It’s a bad looking watch and a bad looking Apple product. Version 2.0 will probably resolve that.”
-Matt Trevathan, director of product management at Kony
Wait and see: “The Apple Watch has a few innovative features that peaked my interest, such as the use of the crown for zooming and controlling the watch, but it isn’t enough innovation or wow factor to make me want to run out and buy one.”
-Mark Kanji, CEO of Apptivation
Yes: “The Apple Watch is intended to reduce the amount of time that we spend on our constant interactions with technology. They’re not another screen to simply stare at, but rather one that offers us a way to deal with a notification, respond to an email or request an Uber in the quickest, most frictionless way possible.”
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