After a strong weekend of online reservations, analysts are projecting over one million Apple Watches have been sold. Apple is not releasing any numbers just yet, but the focus on the immediate sales performance is not being driven by Cook. The Apple Watch, at least in this generation, should not be measured by its financial performance. It should be measured by knowledge.
Of course Cupertino will have internal benchmarks, and of course there will be indicators that will mark out the launch of the Apple Watch as a success. But alongside the financial markers and the volume measurements, there will be more ephemeral KPIs that matter to Tim Cook and Apple.
I think that the real sales push, just like Microsoft of old, will be on the third generation of Apple Watch. That's when the Apple Watch will have all the UI issues sorted out, significant app support, and a groundswell of geekerati declaring their Apple Watches to be revolutionary; that's when the word of mouth will reach deafening proportions; that's when all the bugs and issues will be knocked out of the software; that's when all the health apps and watch sensors will be switched on; that's when Apple's vision will be fully on display.
(Read more reviews from around the internet about the Apple Watch).
Much as the first iPhone was a feature phone that allowed Apple to gather critical experience and data in the mobile phone space, the first Apple Watch will be used to align Apple's ideas on wearable technology with the public. It will be an opportunity to educate the first wave of users, and those watching Apple's progress, in how Apple wants a smartwatch to be used. In essence, the first batch of Apple Watches is less about selling a product, more about selling an idea.
Attaching the Apple name to the watch means that it is going to sell. The high prices at launch and the celebrity endorsements will ensure that Apple does not lose significant amount of money on this project. But the real value to Apple is not in the short-term sales or the increased interest, the real value is the information it gathers from usage patterns, sales, developer feedback, bug reports, and real-world statistics that it can gather on smartwatch usage.
Apple's vision has created a good smartwatch. Apple's vision plus public feedback can deliver a better smartwatch in the future. And that's the watch to watch out for.
