My informal survey of about 230 college students suggests that two of them are eager to buy the
The Apple Watch only performs all its functions for iPhone owners. As Techradar wrote, Apple Watch "beams messages, Facebook updates and simplified apps, [receives] glanceable notifications, [transmits] 'taptic' feedback, and [calls on] Siri."
And non iPhone owners can "use Apple Pay, do Passbook flight check-ins, listen to music during a run, track fitness metrics," and tell time, according to Techradar.
But my small poll does not represent the entire set of people who will buy -- 18 analysts surveyed by Forbes predict an average of 22.5 million Apple Watches will be sold.
Before getting into the numbers, let's look at why about 99% of the people I have asked stare at me dumfounded when I ask them if they will buy the Apple Watch. The reason is simple -- it is expensive and does not do anything that they already care to do with their smartphone.
The two students who said they would buy it wanted the attention that they expected to get from their friends the first time they wear it in public.
Indeed after reading reviews, it remains difficult for me to see its value. TechTimes summarized the reviews nicely -- writing that they conclude "the Watch, is gorgeous, captivating, enticing and luxurious. But when it comes to usefulness, ease of use, user-friendly features and downright usability, the accolades are rare."
I read the New York Times review which suggested four days of painful learning delivered what struck me as a faint payoff from its "taptic engine" -- a whoopee cushion for the wrist with three different kinds of buzzing!
The Times reviewer wrote, "incoming phone calls and alarms feel throbbing and insistent, a text feels like a gentle massage from a friendly bumblebee, and a coming calendar appointment is like the persistent pluck of a harp."
Nevertheless, analysts believe that millions of people will buy the Apple Watch.
That Forbes survey found average Apple Watch estimates of 22.5 million units sold. That forecast includes a wide range from 41 million sold in 2015 by Global Equities Research's Trip Chowdhry to 8 million in the view of Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster.
But I am leaning towards expecting a forecast on the lower end.
BMO Capital Markets cut its Apple Watch sales forecast 30% on April 9 after conducting a survey of potential Apple Watch buyers. "BMO’s survey of 735 consumers through April 8th, a period in which Apple has been showing ads on TV, showed only 9% of people with an iPhone intend to buy the Apple Watch, while only 1% of people who don’t own an iPhone intend to buy one," wrote Barron's.
BMO cut its Apple Watch forecast dramatically. "We had assumed that Apple would sell 55.5 million units from the June 2015 quarter through the September 2016 quarter, with an ASP of about $417-$420. [After the survey, we cut our] Apple Watch estimate to 39 million units over the forecast period," according to BMO.
I have no idea why even eight million people will pay for the Apple Watch.
But it does bring to mind the results of a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scan of the brains of people who hold iPhones. According to a September 2011 column in the New York Times, a branding consultant's fMRI scans of 16 people revealed that when people hold their iPhones, blood flows to their insular cortex -- the part of the brain that is stimulated by being near loved ones.
If the Apple Watch stimulates the same part of its buyers' brains, then perhaps these revenue forecasts make biological sense.
I am not smart enough to figure out why the iPhone stimulates the insular cortex -- but such stimulation strikes me as a "reason" why anyone would buy the Apple Watch.
