Most analysts seem to be expecting that the high-end of Apple’s guidance for the September quarter will be in-line with what the Street is expecting. Going into the results for the June quarter sell-side analysts are forecasting Apple to generate $51.1 billion in revenue and $1.86 of EPS for the September quarter. These are reasonable given the company’s typical quarter to quarter trends however if the next iPhone launches a week later due to Labor Day being later in September it could create a short-term problem for the shares. (Note that I own Apple shares).
Labor Day falls on September 7, the latest it can fall
Due to a quirk in the calendar this year Labor Day falls on the latest day that it can be celebrated in September. This could be critical to what Apple guides for revenue if it sticks to the same announce and ship schedule for the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus that it has for the last three versions of the iPhone.
For the past three years Apple has generated June quarter to September quarter revenue growth of 3%, 6% and 13%, respectively. With analysts estimating that the company will generate $49.3 billion in revenue for the just ended June quarter (guidance is $46 to $48 billion and I’m projecting $50.4 billion) getting to $51.1 billion (up 4%) seems very doable.
While Apple may move up the timing of its iPhone 6s announcement to give the company its typical 9 days of selling new iPhones before the September quarter ends if they stick to the schedule it has for the past three years Apple will only have two days of sales before the quarter closes. While this shouldn’t make a difference in the long-run Apple’s September quarter’s guidance could be below what the Street is expecting without much of an explanation from management (unless they mention this reason which they may not since it gives away something about unannounced products).
New iPhones are typically announced the week after Labor Day
What you will see is that Apple has had its big launch event the week after Labor Day on a Tuesday or Wednesday for the previous three iPhones. It then starts selling the new iPhone a week later on a Friday which gives the company nine selling days for the new iPhone.
Here are the dates for the past three iPhone announcements
- 2012: iPhone 5
- Labor Day, Monday, September 3
- Announce, Wednesday, September 12
- (General Availability) GA, Friday, September 21
- Fiscal year end, September 29
- 2013: iPhone 5c & 5s
- Labor Day, Monday, September 2
- Announce, Tuesday, September 10
- GA, Friday, September 20
- Fiscal year end, September 28
- 2014: iPhone 6 & 6 Plus
- Labor Day, Monday, September 1
- Announce, Tuesday, September 9
- GA, Friday, September 19
- Fiscal Year end, September 27
Apple needs to change its pattern for announcing its new iPhone
If Apple moves up the announce date to the week of Labor Day everything is fine since it will have the typical 9 selling days before its fiscal year ends.
- 2015 iPhone 6s
- Labor Day, Monday, September 7
- Announce, Tuesday to Thursday, September 8-10
- GA, Friday, September 18
- Fiscal year end, September 26
But if it sticks to its typical schedule it will only have 2 selling days in the September quarter which means the guidance it gives will probably be lower than expected.
- Announce, Tuesday, September 15
- GA, Friday, September 25
- FISCAL YEAR ENDS, SEPTEMBER 26 1 DAY LATER
If this happens the stock could take a hit unless investors are willing to look past this. One reason the company may stick to its normal schedule is that it would push a large part of its first week of sales to the December quarter when it has a very tough compare with the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus.
