Two independent firms have data that indicate Apple’s iPhone 6s is experiencing a slower uptake than last year’s iPhone 6 models. This isn’t too surprising since this is the second year with the same form factor iPhone. However since Apple has a larger install base this will help mitigate a slower uptake. (Note that I own Apple shares).
The slower uptake will be viewed negatively by Apple’s Bears but can be spun positively by Apple’s Bulls. One factor to take into account is that Fiksu’s and Localytic’s don’t capture all the iPhones in usage especially in foreign markets. While they may not correctly capture Apple’s actual sales I do believe they give a decent indication of iPhone trends. I think it is also important to keep track of China Mobile’s 4G growth as this is a worthwhile data point for Apple’s iPhone business. Also a larger trade-in trend as seen by Gazelle should help iPhone 6s sales.
Larger install base helps offset lower adoption
One mitigating factor is that Apple’s iPhone install base is larger than a year ago. While its not quite an apples to apples comparison since not all iPhones are still in use a year ago Apple had sold 551 million iPhones by June 2014. As of June 2015 that number had grown to almost 774 million or 40% higher.
Fiksu has tracked iPhone usage for multiple iPhone cycles
As can seen in the graph below the iPhone 6s is 2.6% of iPhones in usage vs. at the same time post launch last year when the iPhone 6 was at 3.9%. The iPhone 6s Plus is not trailing the iPhone 6 Plus uptake as much from a year ago. This year’s 6s Plus is at 0.8% vs. last year’s 1.0% for the 6 Plus. In total the two 6s’ models are at 3.4% vs. 4.9% for the iPhone 6.
Localytics is showing similar trends for the iPhone 6s compared to the iPhone 6 a year ago. It has Apple’s iPhone 6s at 2.1% of iPhones in usage vs. 3.4% for the iPhone 6 a year ago. Localytic’s data has the iPhone 6s Plus at 0.5% vs. 0.6% for the iPhone 6 Plus. In total it has Apple’s 6s models at 2.6% vs. 4.0% a year ago. The difference of 1.4% is very close to Fiksu’s 1.5% difference.
