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Apple Is Having An Unusual Promotion

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Apple has initiated a very limited promotional offering in selected California and Massachusetts stores that gives customers $50 off an Apple Watch or Apple Watch Sport when buying a new iPhone. MacRumors reports Apple confirmed the deal will run from October 30 to November 15 and is not available online. In Target’s Sunday newspaper flyer I received yesterday it is advertising 10% off any Apple Watch when you activate any iPhone 6s or 6s Plus. (Note that I own Apple shares).

What does this mean?

I do not remember Apple having a promotional offering that wasn’t tied to Back to School or Black Friday. And doing it in a very limited number of stores, which is probably normal course of business for many retailers, is unusual if not unprecedented for Apple.

This doesn’t mean the Watch is on the ropes as this is probably testing the waters. I would put this in the column that the Watch could use some help and Angela Ahrendts, Apple’s SVP of Retail and Online Stores, was critical in persuading company management to go down this path.

Apple’s Back to School promotions the past two years have been $50 to $100 gift cards in 2014 and for Beats headphones of around $200 in 2015. Black Friday deals were gift cards of $25 to $150 in 2013 and $25 to $100 in 2014. So the Watch promotion is in-line with the dollar amount that Apple gives in its regular deals.

I estimate that Apple sold 2.4 and 3.5 million Watches in the June and September quarters, respectively, which would have generated $1.14 billion (2.3% of total revenue) and $1.66 billion (3.2% of total revenue) assuming a $475 ASP (average selling price).

Steve Milunovich at UBS estimates that Apple sold 2.2 and 2.75 million Watches, respectively with an ASP of about $440 and Jeffrey Kvaal at Nomura projects that the company sold 2.75 and 3 million with an ASP of $450. These are decent numbers but not barnburners so it isn’t surprising to see Apple test out a promotion.

The lead-times for the Watch (price range of $549 to $1,099) and Watch Sport ($349 to $399) show up as In Stock on Apple’s US website and the Edition ($10,000 to $17,000) has lead-times of 3 to 5 days or less.