Only Single-Digit Growth for Smartphones in 2015

New figures from IDC indicate that the smartphone market is slowing down. So much so, that 2015 is likely to be the first full year of only single-digit growth in worldwide smartphone shipments.

IDC estimates the total number of smartphone shipments will hit 1.43 billion units for the year, which represents a growth of just 9.8 percent over last year.

As for the possible reasons for the slowdown, given that smartphone shipments had a year-to-year growth of 27.5 percent in 2014, IDC highlights China's economic slowdown combined with its transition to a replacement market (instead of a market driven by first-time buyers).

"With the smartphone market finally slowing to single-digit growth, maintaining momentum will depend on several factors. The main driver has been and will continue to be the success of low-cost smartphones in emerging markets. This, in turn, will depend on capturing value-oriented first-time smartphone buyers as well as replacement buyers," said Ryan Reith, a program director at IDC, in a statement.

"We believe that, in a number of high-growth markets, replacement cycles will be less than the typical two-year rate, mainly because the components that comprise a sub-$100 smartphone simply do not have the ability to survive two years," he continued. "Offering products that appeal to both types of buyers at a suitable price point will be crucial to maintaining growth and vendor success."

Android and iOS smartphones are expected to see year-to-year growth of 9.5 and 17.3 percent, respectively, whereas Windows Phones are on a 10.2 percent decline—which IDC attributes to a lack of OEM partner support for the devices. Interest in the iPhone 6 and 6s prompted IDC to raise its shipment estimates for Apple's smartphones. However, IDC notes that Apple might find itself with an excess of inventory in a few years, mostly in developing markets where refurbished iPhones are sold. There's still plenty of time for Apple to address the potential issue without it eating into Apple's expected 14-15 percent annual market share.

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"As shipment volumes continue to slow across many markets, consumers will be enticed by both affordable high-value handsets as well as various financing options on pricier models," said Anthony Scarsella, an IDC research manager, in a statement.

"Vendors will look to push device financing and trade-in options across many of the developed markets as growth in these markets is expected to primarily come from replacement purchases and second devices. Apple has taken the lead with its iPhone Upgrade Program, and several other vendors are expected to implement similar plans in the months ahead."