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Typically in the first full quarter after a new iPhone is introduced the average selling price (ASP) increases due to the early customers buying larger memory configurations and a higher percentage of new models. In the previous four iPhone releases the quarter to quarter increase for their ASPs have been: 4% for the 4S in 2001, 4% for the 5 in 2012, 10% for the 5c & 5s in 2013 and 14% for the 6 and 6 Plus in 2014. So it would not be unusual for analysts to expect the iPhone 6s’ ASP to at least stay the same if not increase for the December 2015 quarter.
Consumer Intelligence Research Partners (CIRP) surveys 500 US Apple buyers each quarter. It found that 67% of those surveyed bought a 6s model in the December quarter vs. 75% last year buying an iPhone 6. This is similar to what Fiksu has found for iPhone 6s vs. 6.
While it is limited in its scope over the past six quarters CIRP’s US ASP estimates for Apple’s iPhone has ranged from 103% to 114% higher than what the company reported. A year ago in the iPhone 6’s first full quarter it was 103% too high and over the past three quarters its estimate has been 107% to 108% too high.
For the December 2015 quarter CIRP estimates that the iPhone’s US ASP was $700, down from $718 in the September quarter. Assuming that the iPhone’s total ASP is 6% lower than its US ASP that would make it about $660. At $660 this would be the first September to December quarter ASP decline since the first holiday quarter the iPhone was available in 2007 (the iPhone’s September quarter’s ASP was $670).
Steve Milunovich at UBS is estimating that the iPhone’s ASP was $662 in the December quarter vs. the Street’s $680, which would be a 1% increase quarter to quarter. An $18 difference in the iPhone’s ASP on 75 million units translates to $1.35 billion in less revenue and about $0.05 in EPS. If ASPs come in lower than expected it will add some more fuel to Apple’s Bears position.
