Last month, Microsoft made Windows 10 a recommended update rather than an optional installation. The shift was expected to trigger a fresh wave of installation activations, since users who didn't configure their systems to block the update would find Windows 10 waiting and ready for installation. New data suggests that Microsoft's decision to flip that particular switch may not have had the impact the company hoped it would.
Three separate vendors who track OS market share all see signs that Windows 10 adoption is slowing down, Computerworld reports(Opens in a new window). Net Applications reports Windows 10 on 14.2% of devices, a 1.1-point increase from January. Computerworld's own metrics imply that Microsoft has only recently breached the 200 million installation mark with Windows 10, despite claiming to have reached this in January. It's not all bad news, though -- Windows 10 is officially now more popular than Windows 8 and Windows 8.1 combined.
Image by Computerworld
Meanwhile, the Ireland-based StatCounter saw Windows 10 improve to 14.9% of the total market, up 1.2 points from the previous month. Growth is falling off month by month, however, with fewer systems choosing to take Microsoft's free upgrade offer.
What could this mean for Microsoft?
There are several ways to interpret the data. First, it's possible that while Microsoft has now enabled the ability to push Windows 10 as a recommended update, it's possible that the company is still testing the waters with this capability and rolling it out on a limited scale before full deployment. If that's true, we should see adoption accelerate in the coming months.
Some users will skip the upgrade because they aren't sure if its legitimate. Some won't see it because their system isn't set up for automatic updates. Some are undoubtedly skipping the offer because they aren't happy with Windows 10. But even if we allow for generous percentages on each of those groups, they don't come close to the PC market's total install base.
Microsoft's billion-device goal for Windows 10 has always been ambitious. While the company may get there over time, it may need to either extend its free Windows upgrade offer, or start throwing in other goodies to sweeten the pot. Free Office or Xbox Live would seem to be a good place to start.
Microsoft's push to get Windows 10 on more devices isn't just so the company can simplify its support structure. If Redmond ever hopes to have a mobile operating system people want to use, it needs to boost engagement with Windows 10 so it can leverage one ecosystem to try and kick start another. The degree to which this will work depends on how easily Windows applications move between desktop and mobile. So far, at least in gaming, they don't appear to shift well at all -- at least not compared to the advantages of a platform like Steam. Further investigation into the Windows Store and its gaming requirements is still ongoing.
