Apple Watch shipments will rise just 21% this year, despite having 12 months of sales to last year’s eight, market research firm IDC predicted Thursday.
Apple (AAPL) launched its smartwatch on April 24 with limited availability in nine countries, including the U.S.
IDC estimates that Apple shipped 11.6 million units of Apple Watch in 2015 and is likely to ship 14 million units in 2016.
Apple Watch “is likely to see some slowdown in the early part of 2016 as anticipation builds for the second-generation device,” IDC said in a press release. “However, with newer hardware and an evolving ecosystem, Apple will remain the smartwatch leader” through 2020.
Apple and its suppliers have not yet signaled when a second-generation Apple Watch will hit the market. Apple is expected to unveil new watch bands for the wearable at a spring product launch event on Monday.
Apple Watch leads the nascent smartwatch market and is expected to claim 49.4% market share this year, IDC says.
Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Android Wear operating system is expected to be on 6.1 million smartwatches shipped this year, accounting for 21.4% of the market and good enough for second place, IDC says.
IDC predicts that Apple Watch shipments will reach 31 million units in 2020, with a 5-year compound annual growth rate of 22%.
Meanwhile, Android Wear smartwatches are seen growing to 28.8 million units in 2020, with a 5-year CAGR of 48%.
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