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Stocks finish flat, end win streak at 5 weeks

Adam Shell
USA TODAY

Heading into the long weekend, U.S. stocks showed weakness amid renewed talk of a coming interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, a resurgent dollar and falling oil prices, putting an end to their five-week winning streak.

Trader Richard Newman works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Friday, March 18, 2016.  (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

The Dow and Nasdaq composite each finished up 0.1%. The S&P 500 slipped 0.04%.

Thursday marked the end of the trading week. U.S. financial markets are closed Friday in observance of Good Friday.

So-called risk assets like stocks  came under fresh pressure this week. Investor sentiment has cooled following the terror attacks in Brussels as well as comments the past two days from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard that hinted that the next interest rate hike could come sooner than investors have anticipated.

In a speech Thursday, Bullard said the next interest rate hike "may not be far off" if the economic outlook evolves as the Fed expects. Those so-called "hawkish" comments follow an interview Wednesday with Bloomberg when Bullard said if the March jobs report comes in strong next Friday "you could probably make a case for a move (rate hike) in April."

Fresh talk of a rate hike, perhaps as early as April, has pushed the dollar higher and commodities prices lower, two developments that are negatives for stocks. The Fed last week had buoyed markets when it slashed the number of rate hikes it expects in 2016 from four to two, citing a slight downgrade to its economic outlook and inflation expectations due to global turbulence. Markets had been pricing in the next rate hike no earlier than June.

A rally of more than 10% off of the Feb. 11 lows was driven by a drop in recession fears, as well as a weakening dollar and a stabilization in oil prices. But both the dollar and crude has reversed course in recent days, giving investors pause. The dollar was up 0.2% Thursday against a basket of foreign currencies and U.S.-produced crude was off nearly 3% to $38.71 and below the key $40 per barrel mark.

The weakness in stock prices this week again has Wall Street debating whether the recent rally is fading and nothing more than a so-called rally in a down market.

Gary Kaltbaum, president of Kaltbaum Capital Management, sent this warning to USA TODAY via e-mail this morning: "Since our call for a market low on Feb 11 and Feb 12 and during the past weeks of rallying, we have not had to say the following once: We think there is a better than average chance that Wednesday's action marked a near-term top, maybe of importance."

Investors were also digesting economic news. Durable goods, or sales of long-lasting, big-ticket items like refrigerators and washing machines, fell 2.8% in February. The weak reading suggests "that companies and households are still very cautious in their spending," Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA told clients in a report.

The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits jumped 6,000 to a still low 265,000 in the latest weekly reading.

Stock markets in Europe, which are currently at the epicenter of the terrorism threat, were trading sharply lower. The broad Stoxx Europe 600 was down 1.5%. Germany's DAX index was off 1.5% and the CAC 40 in Paris was 2.1% lower.

Shares also closed lower in Asia. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.6%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 1.6% and mainland China's Shanghai composite shed 1.6%.

Adam Shell on Twitter: @adamshell.

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