With the rollout of the iPhone SE, it's clear Apple is no longer beholden to its old iPhone release schedule of "new models only in the fall, older models rolling off the price list in 2 years." But if Apple's top Wall Street analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is to be believed, the company is set to make an even bigger break with past behavior come this fall. The KGI Securities analyst, in a report obtained by Mac Rumors, suggests Apple is going to launch a massive overhaul of the iPhone with a 5.8-inch OLED screen and a curved glass front and back. But that overhaul won't come until 2017, while 2016's iPhone 7 will be substantially similar to the current design.
Breaking from the past
Sorting out all the rumors, this means this fall's model would deviate from a pattern that iPhone has followed for the past 6 years. Specifically, Apple rolls out a new design in the even year and then substantially upgrades the internals in the odd years. We've seen this with iPhone 4, 5, and 6 each sporting substantial changes to the physical nature of the phone -- most importantly in screen size with the past two generations.
A number of recent rumors have suggested iPhone 7 will do little design-wise to deviate from the 6 and 6s other than to drop the headphone jack, become even thinner and perhaps gain a second speaker. There have also been suggestions that an improved camera module will no longer protrude from the back of the phone even as it slims down. While this subtle a change seems unlikely, it's safe to say a few months ago few would have been easily persuaded Apple would take the design from the 3 1/2-year-old iPhone 5, pump it full of 6s technology and sell it for $50 less than the iPhone 5s. But that's exactly what the SE is.
Leaping ahead later?
The idea that Apple would do a more subtly refined iPhone 7 only for a year then roll out a more substantial upgrade in 2017 is given somewhat more weight by the claim the 2017 model would be limited to the larger screen "Plus" form factor, at least at first. Kuo goes even further, suggesting that limited availability of the 5.8-inch screens might cause Apple to keep both the 4.7-inch and 5-5-inch sizes along with it.
That claim is absurd. OLED availability is already strong globally and will only be stronger a year from now. Apple doesn't sell that so many Plus models of the current year's phone that it would have trouble acquiring supply of screens if a decision has been made to build an OLED phone next year.
But still this gets weird. Consider the possible lineup in 2017:
- iPhone SE successor at the low end
- iPhone 6s/6s Plus discontinued (?)
- iPhone 7/7 Plus carried over from 2016 as the middle models
- iPhone 7s, iPhone 7s Plus with completely different designs as flagships
Kuo's idea is that the 2017 5.8-inch phone will offer slimmer bezels, wireless charging, iris or facial recognition and curved front and rear glass. And all of this will be smaller than the current 6s Plus size. The latter is believable: The side, top and bottom bezels on the iPhone are not close to industry leading. Apple's insistence on symmetry up top is especially galling given the need for a large bottom bezel for the home button. But if this design is to be limited to the OLED model and the iPhone 7 design will carry over to the 7s, then the Plus model won't look anything like its smaller sibling.
Kuo's note suggests there could be three models but this is a non-starter. His idea of a separation in the Plus series has been floated several times now. While it's believable the iPhone 7 Plus will differ from iPhone 7 -- rumors of a dual-lens camera for example have abounded -- Apple has shown little inclination to complicate its lineups more than "pick a size, pick a color, pick a storage capacity". (It will be odd enough that the multiple years of iPhones are on sale offering potentially so many different options and it wouldn't shock me to see Apple extend the lineup beyond the SE, but offering new phones without meaningful differentiation makes no sense.)
Changing the pattern
The design constraints imposed by the aforementioned Home button have become an albatross on reimagining iPhone. While many concept renders have buried the button in the screen, the technology to do that isn't real yet. And with the fingerprint reader becoming a signature iPhone feature it seems unlikely to depart quickly, especially given how fast it now works.
Where this leaves Apple is unclear, though it hasn't stopped Kuo from speculating. And it's clear the iPhone will begin its transition to OLED no later than 2018, with the real possibility that at least some iPhones will see the better screen technology next year. What will come into better focus soon is this year's model as more parts leak out from sources in the Far East and the phone gets partly "assembled" for us even before Tim Cook and company show it off in September. Apple fans should be increasingly thankful that various upgrade programs now allow getting the newest model each year easily. With this much change coming, it might be hard to decide when to upgrade otherwise.
