Wall Street’s forecasts for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone sales in the quarter just ending are between 47 million and 57 million, which is an extremely large spread, even for Wall Street analysts, who notoriously hedge their bets. If Apple’s sales drop below 50 million, its shares will sell off, and an already big slip over the past year will get bigger.
The effects of the new iPhone SE may not help the quarter much because of its launch date. That means the aging iPhone 6 family will need to carry the load. The level of demand before the iPhone SE becomes available and the iPhone 7, probably later this year, could be tepid. One theory is that consumers who really want an iPhone 6 already have one.
Apple sold 75 million iPhones in the fourth calendar quarter. That was the “holiday quarter” and the iPhone 6 family was relatively new. Only in the consumer tech industry can a product age rapidly in a matter of weeks.
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