Why does it look like the digital world has, once more, turned against Apple in April?
Android is stealing market share from Apple in key territories including China; the competition are releasing innovative handsets with dual cameras, modular hardware and new form factors; version six of Android is finally being used by a notable number of consumers; and Android's commanding share of the cheaper end of the market creates an economy of scale and an easy on-ramp into Google's cloud.
Bringing this all into focus is Samsung - arguably Apple's nemesis in the handset manufacturing business - which has managed to jump ahead with critical acclaim for the Galaxy S7 family apparently being matched by initial sales that are lifting the revenue and profits of the South Korean company.
What does Apple have on its side of the fence? A reworked version of the nearly three-year old iPhone 5S, a tablet line-up that is trying to provide a different form factor at every price point in the portfolio, an under-siege music-streaming service, and a desk-bound line up that was fresh and exciting in 2012 but is still on sale four years later.
Is it any wonder that Apple looks vulnerable?
To be fair, Apple looks this vulnerable every April. The Android industry is focused around Mobile World Congress, and will always have new designs announced in late February that go sale in late March and early April. The rush of Christmas sales that typically boosts Apple in the fourth calendar quarter are superseded by the slower sales of Q1, where there is a bias to renewing Android-based contracts with the new hardware. As for Samsung, it refreshes the family at this time of year and goes all-in with the marketing, in print, online and through social media channels to get existing Galaxy customers to pick up a new handset with those carrier contracts.
This is the cycle of the mobile industry. Unless it is disrupted, Android reaches its peak just as Apple falls into a trough. There's a natural tendency to look at the short-term trends on the graph and extrapolate the rise of Android against the fall of Apple - which also fits in the tendency to frame a story around winners and losers. The perception that Apple will fall at some point, so why not now?
Apple will pick up the pace in a few months time. The appearance of the iPhone SE in tis March window will not draw a line underneath the dip in the sales - this isn't a handset the geekerati are going to run out and buy, but it will be a handset that slowly builds a presence as iPhone contracts are renewed. That keeps Apple feeling fresh in the mind of the general public, if not the hardcore fans.
They are waiting for the presumptively named iPhone 7. Even if the handset design changes are restricted to the loss of the 3.5mm headphone jack, a reworked camera, and retains the same cosmetic design of the iPhone 6 family, it will be the natural replacement for the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus owners coming to the end of their contracts. And if they were reluctant upgraders because of the size, then the SE is here to offer them a powerful pocket-sized smartphone.
Tablets never took off in the way smartphones did, although that is true across the industry. Apple is reconfiguring the range from the largest size down with the iPad Pro range, pitching these units as 'replacing your laptops'. Expect this process to continue with the potentially confusing iPad Mini Pro by the end of the year, as the vanilla iPads continue to provide an entry-level device for other family members.
As for the Mac range, the new MacBook hardware is brining in more sales and customers, and while the MacBook Pro and MacBook Air laptops retain a similar design, it has kept pace with technological updates and remain attractive and usable device, albeit without approaching the absolute cutting edge of laptops.
Next: Why 2016 is different...
April has traditionally been a dark month for Apple, but this year is different. Tim Cook has set out to flatten the wave that Apple rides with new products that are attractive to demographics other than 'the high-flying must buy everything that Apple makes' crowd. He is solidifying the product line-up, and he is looking to retain as many customers as possible through dependable upgrades. It's not pretty, it's not visionary, but it's clinically effective.
Moving forwards, Cupertino will be watching Intel's upcoming Kaby Lake architecture with a view to new laptops in early 2017, technology such as OLED smartphone displays are maturing to the point where cost-effective production yields are achievable, and the wealth of data from the first generation Apple Watch users will be feeding back into the next iteration of Apple's wearable.
It might be a dark month, but Tim Cook and his team are hard at working building a torch that can run all year round, not just in one very bright autumnal month.
(Now read twenty-five reasons why the iPhone SE is a gamble for Apple).
