Apple (AAPL) iPhone sales might not rise this year, as the company's next-generation handset is looking like an incremental upgrade that won't excite customers, Barclays analyst Mark Moskowitz said in a research report Wednesday.
Moskowitz cut his price target on Apple stock to 131 from 142 but reiterated his overweight rating. Apple stock was up a fraction, near 108, in afternoon trading on the stock market today.
The analyst also lowered his iPhone unit sales estimates for the March and June quarters to 50.7 million and 46.3 million, respectively, down from 51.3 million and 49 million.
“Our revised iPhone estimates signal more patience is required, owing to tenuous demand and the uncertain effects of iPhone SE rollout on (average selling prices) and margin,” he said.
Apple is scheduled to report March-quarter results on Monday after the market close.
Moskowitz also questioned iPhone sales prospects for the September and December quarters, based on reports about the upcoming iPhone 7.
“Our research indicates iPhone 7 prototypes do not suggest any must-have form factor changes,” Moskowitz said.
For the calendar year, he now expects iPhone unit sales to decline 1.8% vs. his previous forecast for 2.6% growth.
On the plus side, Apple reportedly plans to skip its traditional S model iPhone next year and jump straight to a redesigned smartphone in the iPhone 8, Moskowitz said.
“The jump could showcase major form factor changes, including OLED (display), no home button and wireless charging,” he said. “In our view, these potential changes could drive a mega-cycle.”
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