Wall Street's consensus view on Apple's price target is too high, despite the average estimate falling in recent months, Robert W. Baird senior analyst Will Power said Friday.
Power said the firm has become more cautious on the stock in the near to medium term, in part on the view that iPhone unit shipments will fall about 2 percent in fiscal year 2017 from 2016. The Street is expecting mid-single-digit growth, he added.
In a note, he said he expects shipments to ramp up not with the upcoming iPhone 7, but when Apple releases the iPhone 8, which Baird believes will include more substantial updates.
Selling pressure has intensified since Apple reported disappointing fiscal second quarter earnings.
Apple is "still living under the shadow of the success of the iPhone 6. In some respects, they're the victim of their own success," Power told CNBC's "Squawk Box."
Baird is not expecting any major new product announcements either, he said.
The average price target on Apple shares has fallen from about $147 in the fall to roughly $124 today, according to FactSet data. Shares settled just above $90 on Thursday and have fallen 28 percent in the last year.
Power said he does not expect the stock to fall below $80 a share, but Baird would downgrade it more aggressively if it did.