Here’s why it took so long for the Chromecast to outsell Apple TV

 

Google's Chromecast
Google's Chromecast

A flutter of headlines recently declared that Google’s (GOOGL) Chromecast is now outselling Apple TV (AAPL) for the very first time, based on a report from IHS analyst Merrick Kingston.

Kingston found that Chromecast had rapidly picked up its growth, shipping double the volume of Apple TV in Q1 (3.2 million vs. 1.7 million). This report also pinned the reason for Chromecast’s outperformance on the big price difference between the Chromecast and Apple TV, with the former retailing at $35, and the latter at $149.

Why did it take so long for Chromecast to outsell Apple? Both are primarily video-streaming devices, and Chromecast started off in 2013 priced at a third of what the Apple TV was. Chromecast’s relative price has only gotten better from there, with the Apple TV getting a 50% price bump last year.

I asked the study’s author a few questions via email, and he believes the sudden acceleration of Chromecast sales is partly due to the launch of the second-generation Chromecast in late 2015 — which raised awareness about the cheaper device.

Kingston explained: “Price, on its own, isn’t sufficient to explain this market reversal. My feeling is that the launch of the 2nd gen Chromecast directed a fair amount of attention to the device, and that in conjunction with price, catalyzed sales.”

Additionally, while both devices ship most of their devices in North America, Apple has previously had more of a worldwide reach, according to Kingston.

“iTunes video content is available in more markets than is Google Play Movies & TV,” says Kingston, who also noted UK and Northern Europe are particularly strong international markets. He also noted that the total number of Apple TVs sold still exceeds the total number of Chromecasts sold.

The Apple TV is also a cut above Chromecast, in terms of features offered. The former has a customized remote and user interface, while Chromecast relies on displaying content from a smartphone or laptop to the TV.

Along with the price bump last year came more features, such as the ability to run native Apple TV apps. Combined with the specialized remote, Apple has managed to turn its TV into a simple, casual gaming platform. Due to this innovation, the absolute number of Apple TVs shipped increased year over year, even though their relative market share declined.

From a profitability perspective, the Apple TV likely beats the Chromecast by a fair margin, according to Kingston. He elaborated on this as well: “In keeping with Apple’s strategy, my expectation is that the margin on 4th gen Apple TVs is substantially higher than the Chromecasts raw margin. This is not to say, however, that Google is shipping Chromecast at a loss in order to generate scale, or to recoup the loss through the sale of content. There’s little chance that the device’s bill-of-materials, which largely boils down to a Wi-Fi module and an HDMI output, nudges above USD 35.”  

Even with double the shipments in Q1, Chromecast’s revenues are also still lower, given that its price is a fourth of Apple TV’s.

For the future, Kingston sees Chromecast continuing to outship Apple TV. However, he said that lead is more likely to be “flatlining, not accelerating.”

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