Apple VR? Don't Hold Your Breath

In late February, I argued that Apple needs to get into VR sooner than later.

But here we are, some five months later, and the best we have is Tim Cook saying AR and VR is interesting during an earnings call. While I understand that Apple is not one to jump on a trend right away, I decided to take a closer look at why Apple might be avoiding VR for now.

As most Apple watchers know, Cupertino tends to watch a new technology enter the market and study closely what type of interest and impact it has. Then, if it sees the technology has real demand, Apple introduces its own version, which can be tied to its large ecosystem of apps and services.

Apple did not invent the PC. But it improved upon the concept with the Mac, which introduced the mouse, graphical user interfaces, and smaller floppy drives. Apple also did not invent MP3 players, but the iPod quickly eclipsed all competitors.

I believe that as Apple is eyeing VR, it's viewing it as it did the early MP3 player market. While some early VR headsets are picking up steam with gamers and early adopters, I don't believe this is a market in which Apple has a high interest. For one thing, these devices are not high volume. And at the low end, with the Samsung Gear VR ($34.99 at Amazon) , they are low quality.

So, the big question is, when will Apple enter the VR space? As I look at what is in the market today, I really don't believe that Apple will introduce a tethered solution or low-end headset powered by an iPhone. Rather, I think Apple should enter this market with a powerful, standalone device.

Knowing Apple, I suspect it would also opt for very high-quality optics and make the overall VR experience a fully hands-free one as much as possible by applying AI via Siri for many levels of input and navigation. Then it would create a special VR-optimized version of iOS and deliver a dedicated SDK for developers.

My best guess is that Apple still needs more powerful mobile processors and GPUs to pull this off. What is interesting is that in talking with key semiconductor players, they too don't believe a tethered headset will ever gain mass market adoption. I suspect Apple will need at least another one or two years to advance its A series processor before it can go in an Apple-acceptable VR headset.

So, I don't expect Apple to enter the VR space anytime soon. However, if history is our guide, even if Apple is "late" to the VR game, it could end up delivering one of the best solutions and drive unit sales in the millions per month. Of all the players out there, Apple is probably in the best position to bring VR to a mass market.