Apple analysts fear 'air pocket' after iPhone 7 spike
SAN FRANCISCO — If iPhone 7 is Apple's bridge to its Next Big Thing — in all probability, the 10th-anniversary edition of the smartphone in late 2017 — it might not be far enough.
Apple's latest should rack up a healthy first weekend of sales, beginning Friday. Anticipation of demand for the water-resistant phones has driven up shares (AAPL) 8% this week. But orders will lag through the end of the year as customers hold off for a bigger technological leap next year, according to several financial analysts.
"The upgrade rate for the next iPhone may slow even more than the upgrade rate cycle of 6S, which has been materially lower than the upgrade rate of the iPhone 6," says Colin Gillis, senior technology analyst at BGC Financial.
At least two analysts — Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster and Angelo Zino, a financial analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence — predict shipments of more than 13 million for the iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus this weekend, topping last year's first weekend for iPhone 6S. Zino attributes the uptick to a "fairly positive" reaction to the new phone's features and its release date, a week earlier than usual.
Feeding the rosy reports are statements from T-Mobile and Sprint that preorders are strong, though neither provided numbers. Zino said Apple may also be getting an unexpected boost from Samsung's troubles with Galaxy Note 7, a lauded rival to the bigger iPhones that the Korean electronics firm has been recalling due to reports of exploding or on-fire batteries.
Anticipation of the iPhone 7's initial sales has sent Apple shares climbing to a nine-month high of $111.77 on Wednesday. For the year, Apple stock is up nearly 7%.
Apple hasn't done this for 9 months
After an initial spurt in pre-orders Zino anticipates a year-over-year decline in quarterly iPhone sales in September (45 million vs. 48 million) and December (70 million vs. 74.8 million).
"As the (10th-anniversary iPhone) nears, expect an air pocket in iPhone 7 sales," Zino says.
The longer-term forecast reflects a predictable pattern in products at Apple, which increasingly has relied on the high-margin, high-volume iPhone while being noticeably absent of developments in artificial intelligence, augmented reality, virtual reality, cars and machine learning, Gillis says.
On Wednesday, Cook told ABC News he preferred augmented reality over virtual reality and he listed applications he thought could become commonplace. Popular augmented reality game Pokémon Go is estimated to have been a big money-maker for Apple on its App Store, but Apple hasn't released any of its own AR or VR devices, unlike rivals Google and Facebook.
"There is an over-reliance on iPhone," Gillis says. "(Apple CEO) Tim Cook is running the ship great, but he isn’t running it forward."
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