The event invitation didn't mention any specific hardware by name, but let's not be coy. We all know Apple's product unveiling Wednesday will focus on the next version of the iPad. This much we're willing to claim with near metaphysical certitude.
What remains in question, however, are the specific specs and features of Apple's next tablet.
Gadget Lab decided to cull its collective Apple knowledge to predict exactly what will be revealed at Wednesday's event. Tackling product features in a descending order of likelihood -- from all but certain to wildly improbable -- our editors and reporters handicapped the future of Apple tablet design.
Our panel of prognosticators included Jon Phillips, Gadget Lab senior editor; Michael Calore, Wired.com reviews editor; John Bradley, senior editor for Wired magazine; Gadget Lab staff writers Roberto Baldwin, Mike Isaac and myself; and Gadget Lab intern Nathan Hurst.
Below are 13 possible features that Apple's iPad could include, along with details on group consensus and disagreement. But we start, however, with not a product feature, but rather a debate over what the tablet will be called.
- The name
Until the iPhone 4S came out, pretty much everyone thought it would be named the iPhone 5. But now that Apple has proven it's willing to stray from logical naming patterns (the iPhone 3GS should have been our first clue), our confidence in Apple-related pattern-recognition is shattered. The next tablet could be called iPad 3, or perhaps something else entirely (the iPad HD is one option that's floating around). Here's what our panel thought:
Verdict: Four votes for iPad 3, zero votes for iPad HD, and (in a last-minute flurry of speculation) three votes for iPad 2S
Phillips said, "When the iPhone line received a Retina Display, Apple kept the numerical naming convention. That is, the phone was called iPhone 4, not iPhone HD. Plus, the iPad 3 will be much, much more than just a 'simple' HD update." And as for that HD title, Bradley felt it would be too confusing "given that so many iPad-native apps are distinguished from iPhone versions by an 'HD' designation."
Baldwin, however, was among the judges who felt Apple could continue the naming protocol it's established for the iPhone, adding an S to the end of a product number.
- Retina Display
Perhaps the most persistent and prevalent rumor about Apple’s next iPad is that it will have a gorgeous HD display -- a so-called Retina Display, à la the first iPhone 4. Specifically, the next iPad is rumored to have a resolution of 1536 x 2048. In recent weeks, the rumor mill has seen many "leaked" images of displays that purportedly feature this level of pixel density, which offers four times the resolution of the current iPad.
Verdict: All seven panelists agree the next iPad will include a high-definition display.
Calore said, "It's the logical next step for the product." Phillips said, "All indicators from both reliable display industry analysts and dubious rumor-mongers tell us the Retina Display is a lock."
- 4G LTE
Consumers and pundits alike have been speculating -- and hoping for -- 4G LTE support since before the iPad 2 even debuted. And then in mid-February, The Wall Street Journal reported Apple’s upcoming tablet would be available on both AT&T and Verizon’s LTE networks. So, will the next iPad push super-fast data on LTE?
__Verdict: __ Five out of our seven judges say LTE will be announced.
Isaac cites the WSJ report as his primary reason for believing the iPad 3 (as we'll refer to it for now) will be LTE. But Calore thinks network policy would put a damper on a 4G tablet: "Hah! With a 3GB data cap? No. LTE will be on iPhones before iPads." Baldwin agreed with Calore's sentiment, saying, "I expect 4G LTE to hit the iPhone first."
Regardless, even the judges who think LTE will be announced conceded that Apple will have to sell the feature at Wednesday's event. Our consensus is that carrier representatives might co-present on stage, and Apple would announce attractive iPad 3-specific data plans -- plus reassurances of network stability. After all, LTE on millions of iPads has the potential to not only send monthly bills through the roof, but also congest immature network infrastructures.
- Quad-core processor
For a long time, rumors targeted the iPad 3 as a quad-core device, but recent reports have suggested it may only be dual-core, like the current iPad 2. Apple's bound to upgrade the processor in some respect -- but by exactly how much?
Verdict: Five of our seven judges say the next tablet will run a quad-core processor.
Baldwin thinks the iPad 3 will feature the rumored A5X processor and it will be quad-core. Phillips thinks Apple will need to include a quad-core chip simply to "tick off that feature box" in a landscape quickly filling up with quad-core Android devices.
Isaac and myself are the naysayers here. We think a quad-core processor would be too power-hungry. Apple is keen to ensure its devices deliver a good amount of battery life. If LTE is onboard, that will sap a lot of power. Add a quad-core processor to the mix, and the iPad would have very poor battery endurance.
- Siri
Ah, Siri. The shining star, the crown jewel, of the iPhone 4S. People have tried to port it to other iOS devices to varied degrees of success. The iPad 3 will mark a big turning point in Apple's product strategy. If Siri makes it onto the iPad, that signals that she's bound for other iOS devices, and maybe even other Apple product lines. And if she doesn't appear in the iPad 3, her future will suddenly look cloudier than ever.
Verdict: Six of seven judges think Siri will be strutting her sass on the iPad 3 in short order.
This came as a bit of a surprise to me, but we Wired staffers feel strongly that Apple will in fact be porting its voice-activated assistant. Phillips was the holdout: "Siri is a smartphone feature," he said, "and it's not even that winning a smartphone feature during day-in, day-out use." But Baldwin expects this won't be a problem: "I’m guessing there will be iPad-only Siri features."
- No physical home button
In the image at the top of the event invitation, the iPad’s trademark home button is missing from the shot. Does this mean the home button is going away? Of course not -- and perhaps conspiracy theorists are misinterpreting the image.
Nonetheless, according to sleuths at Gizmodo, the iDevice in the shot is not in landscape mode, but rather in portrait mode based on the positioning of the water droplets in the background. And in this position, a home button should be visible. Rumors of a home button purge have been bubbling up for a while now, so Apple's invitation image only adds fuel to the fire.
Verdict: All seven judges say the home button remains.
"How will I hard-restart my iPad without a home button?," Baldwin asks. "Plus, it would degrade the navigation unless it’s replaced with a button that doesn’t reside on the bezel." Phillips thinks the home button will be present in some implementation, but "not necessarily in its current position or expression."
- Upgraded camera
Based on purported images of the rear casing of the iPad 3, the camera enclosure looks to be larger compared to what we find in the iPad 2. This suggests the camera is due for a refresh.
Verdict: All seven judges think the camera will be upgraded.
Given that we feel a Retina Display upgrade is a lock, it's only natural that the camera would be improved for equally high-res stills and video. And, as I've speculated before, it's likely the iPad 3 will come with upgraded photo- and video-editing software. But the likelihood of a Retina Display notwithstanding, the tablet's rear camera simply must improve, as the camera implementation in the iPad 2 has been a laughing stock. As Baldwin put it, "It can’t get any worse than it is."
- Thicker than the iPad 2
The iPad 3 is largely expected to be “essentially the same size” as the iPad 2, but many reports peg it to be up to a few millimeters thicker. With an (also rumored) LTE chip and high-resolution display on board, it seems reasonable that a slightly thicker package might be required.
Well, there are mitigating factors. Apple loves thin, and it would be a bit out of character to see a chubbier iPad debut. That would be backsliding, right?
Verdict: Only four out of seven judges feel the next iPad will be thicker.
Calore thinks it will be the same thickness as the iPad 2. Isaac thinks the 4G radio will necessitate a thicker frame. I think that 4G radio, plus extra battery capacity to accommodate that radio, will require a tiny bit thicker chassis.
- Haptic feedback
On the event invitation Apple sent to media, the caption reads, “We have something you really have to see. And touch.” Touch? Well, that's an interesting term to use! Sure, you can touch current iPads and iPhones, but at this point in mobile product design, there’s nothing really special about that. So what is Apple trying to telegraph in its invitation language? Perhaps a touch of haptic feedback will be coming to the iPad experience?
Verdict: Five out of seven judged feel haptic feedback is a non-starter, and won't be included in the iPad 3.
"I think Apple's allusion to 'touch' in its event invite was a red herring," Phillips said. Baldwin concurs: "I don’t think it adds anything to the devices I’ve used that have the feature."
Personally, I disagree. I quite like a bit of haptic response when I'm typing on a keyboard, and it could be a subtle, unexpected addition to the iPad experience.
- NFC
NFC, or near-field communication, lets you make transactions or learn information by simply tapping your NFC-enabled phone onto a corresponding chip, which could be located on a cash register or public kiosk. The phone that was later revealed as the iPhone 4S was rumored to have NFC. Could Apple implement this feature on its next tablet? A November report suggested we could be seeing NFC in Apple's 2012 smartphones.
Verdict: Six out of seven judges pooh-poohed any implementation of NFC.
Baldwin thinks NFC will come to the iPhone first. Calore said, "Only if it's tied to a third-party service that's useful. Otherwise, it's a waste of money." Hurst, our lone NFC proponent, thinks Apple will take the NFC plunge. Why's that? "Because they can," Hurst said. Fair enough.
- Embedded projector
Samsung just announced a smartphone with an embedded projector, the Galaxy Beam. And we’ve seen Apple patents illustrating how an embedded projector could be used in a mobile device. Could Apple throw us a curveball and deliver a device with an onboard projector?
Verdict: All seven judges outright dismiss an embedded projector.
"Apple is not Samsung," Calore said. Baldwin said, "AirPlay to your HDTV is better than a blown-on image on a wall." I, meanwhile, think a projector is currently unreasonable, but could be added in a few year's time.
- Stereoscopic 3-D
Apple has submitted multiple patent filings relating to 3-D, including one about a 3-D interface calibrated by the position of your eyes. Also, 3-D in general is still a major initiative among Hollywood, TV manufacturers and handset makers, all of which continue to develop 3-D content and display technologies.
Verdict: Seven out of seven judges summarily shot down 3-D.
Isaac issued a resounding "Hell no." "Apple is not Sony," Calore said. Baldwin thinks it's a gimmick.
- Microsoft Office for iPad
A November report from The Daily fueled talk that Microsoft could be releasing its Microsoft Office Suite as apps for the iPad. Last week, images of a relatively legit-looking Office for iPad product were leaked, along with a statement that the Office apps could be ready soon. That was quickly followed by Microsoft denials, but this hasn't stopped many from thinking Microsoft could, for the first time in 15 years, join Apple onstage.
Verdict: Four out of seven judges think Microsoft Office is coming to the iPad very soon.
"I'm guessing the Microsoft Business Unit will be presenting onstage at the iPad event," Baldwin said. Calore takes the opposite stance. "At this point, a new build of Angry Birds is more exciting," he said. Personally, I think Microsoft Office for iPad would be a big seller, and a great product for the iPad, but that doesn't mean Apple needs to give up stage time to one of its rivals.
One More Thing...
Perhaps the most important part of an Apple media event takes place in the last 10 to 15 minutes: the famed "And one more thing..." that Steve Jobs always introduced as a final payoff. Interestingly, each Wired staffer had a different perspective on what Apple would unveil during the grande finale on Wednesday.
Phillips thinks it could be a low-priced, feature-limited iPad 2. Bradley said, "New Apple TV. Or maybe snacks." (I could go for snacks.) Calore offered four possibilities: an improved Smart Cover, a better HDMI solution, a Mag-Safe adapter in place of the old dock connector, or lower battery-consumption numbers.
Isaac said, "Nothing! That was Steve's thing." Baldwin thinks it could be a 1080p Apple TV. Currently, the set-top box only does 720p. I originally thought it could be Siri, but now want to switch my vote to an Apple TV -- but would make me a prediction thief. Hurst thinks it could be the collaboration with Microsoft for Office.
We'll find out how we fared on March 7 -- and we'll share whose predictions ended up being most accurate.
